The population of England is projected to increase from 50.8 million in 2006 to 60.4 million in 2031, according to research by Communities and Local Government.
The latest report projects that by 2031, population will increase in England by 9.7 million. In addition, Communities and Local Government predict the number of one person households is set to increase by 60.3%. When compared to the 6.8 million one person households in 2006, the figure is projected to rise to 10.9 million.
If accurate, these changes will mean that 27.8 million households will be required by 2031, an increase of 29.3%.
The report also showed the level of housing stock has more than doubled since 1938; it increased from 10.6 million to 22.2 million in March 2007. During this timeframe, housing stock ownership is now far more concentrated around private ownership. Whilst just 32% of properties were owner-occupied in 1938, the figure now stands at 70%. The figure has fallen from 11% to 9% for local authority rented property and from 57% to 13% for privately rented property. The only area where rental activity has increased is the registered social landlord.
Just as the demand for housing has increased so have new housing projects. In 1998 to 1999, there were 147,000 new homes built, but this figure grew dramatically to 207,000 in the 2007 to 2008 period. A total of 121,000 and 144,000 respectively of these new homes were provided by the private sector. However, reduced profit potential and falling house prices within the 2008 to 2009 period meant that this figure dropped to 108,000.
Despite the rapid increase in the demand for housing, the number of vacant dwellings has continued to rise in the private sector. In April 2008, there were 613,000 vacant private dwellings compared to 587,000 just 12 months earlier. However, the number of local authority homes available for rent has decreased from 41,000 to 37,000. Of these, just 19,000 are available for rental. The number of available registered social landlord properties has also decreased from 31,000 to 29,000 over the same time period.
One of the main reasons for the decline in the popularity of private housing was its affordability. The average house price has increased from £63,000 in 1990 to £196,000 in 2009. As a result, the house price to income ratio went up from 4.01 to 6.26 over the same timeframe. It actually reached a high of 7.07 in 2008, but that was before property prices declined during the global financial crisis.
Not surprisingly, the majority of owner-occupiers (58%) are in full-time employment. This is followed by the economically inactive (32%), those in part-time work (9%) and unemployed (1%). The number of social renters is dominated by the economically inactive (60%) followed by those in full-time employment (24%), part-time employment (9%) and unemployed (6%).
The report also looked into levels of homelessness which has reduced from 63,200 in 2007/2008 to 53,400 in 2008/2009. However, with this report predicting that the population will increase by 9.7 million by 2031, it is uncertain if the levels of homelessness will continue to decline. Only 300 new local authority homes were built last year, according to these statistics, indicating that the problem could potentially worsen.
Communities and Local Government produce publications and statistical information to help the government with its key planning objectives. Data is collected from a number of sources, including administrative returns from local authorities and government surveys. Whether the country is ready for this increase in population and housing, and how the government plans to prepare and improve infrastructure for this increase, remains uncertain.
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